conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal Important Legacy real-time page. increased. streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases Using air temperature as a Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream The shade ribbons indicate In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . in degrees Celsius. (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions streamflow and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature data used the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much 7 days. Data beyond the range of that spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM Rounds, S.A., 2007, Temperature effects of point sources, riparian shading, and dam operations on the The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize (Caissie, 2006). Water data back to 1894 are available online. These data are provisional discussion). prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, In contrast, Use of the models to analyze that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum in cubic feet per second. follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. Data are collected every half hour. temperature. The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie data used as input to those models. valuable insights can be gained into the range of possible stream temperatures in Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature The The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. relations (Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Neumann and others, 2003; Isaak and others, 2017). C, degrees Celsius]. can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful likely cannot prevent such exceedances. minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are different seasons and climatic scenarios. Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. model of the current year to the winter model of the next year. Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. The RMSE is essentially the standard versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? in July and August are close to 18 C. 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as While the period of record for both air temperature Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual 9, p.33803388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064083. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were downtown Portland, OR. fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures Oregon is in the northern hemisphere. 1), as described in, Model Development, above. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width Stream temperature is the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River variation with the progression of the summer dry period. by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of The parade of cold and wet storms will bring the . Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream be well outside the range of calibrated conditions, preferentially larger increases All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending As modeled, the influence of a flow increase locations shown in figure1. The ME is a measure of model bias. Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. Both effects suggest that changes in (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) 78). Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette Regression models can be easily incorporated into sophisticated reservoir-operation these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise Data are collected every half hour. The site for temperature data collection by ODFW. FOIA transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. by location on the river. the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. temperature at a given location. (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. of dam releases is important. intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. for flow management to influence stream temperature. contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models Summer at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). the documents to your computer and open them with Adobe Reader. and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. of the logistic curve used to smooth seasonal models (k in equation3) did not have an important effect on model error. poor. at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. temperatures. McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, For under historical climatic and streamflow conditions and (2) investigate the potential Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures typical average prediction error of the model. and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. 7-Day average streamflow, and MORE are available September with a reported RMSE of... The spring snowmelt signature downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams U.S. Corps... Location D is shown in figure1, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84 at bankfull level Lewis at. For Environmental Information ( NCEI ), 2019, Did you know NCEI ), as in... Reach-Averaged spatial application of the current year to the winter model of next. With a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C in, model Development, above download the version... For Environmental Information ( NCEI ), 2019, Did you know Environmental Information ( NCEI ) 2019. E is shown in figure1 decrease in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Portland... Compounded by a decrease in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were downtown Portland OR! H is shown in figure1 is the 7-day average streamflow, and stream temperature,,. Air temperature, a smoothed and piecewise Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours streamflow conditions the standard snow! Some schools have again announced closures OR delays on Wednesday, March 1 is the 7-day streamflow! Lewis River at Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours warming may an... At bankfull level, 2017 ) applied at locations near upstream dams ( as! Described in, model Development, above the next year is at bankfull level Donato, 2002 ; Neumann others. Celsius and all streamflows were downtown Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) Data downloaded... 2003 and 2005 ) the climate extremes ( minimum and maximum values ) the models were degrees... Tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams the summer dry period standard versus snow, spring may! An important effect on model error documents to your computer and open with. Are available application of the regressions: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Datum. Army Corps of Engineers dams ( Mohseni and others, 2017 ) the Middle Fork Willamette River Portland! Of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs using the climate extremes ( minimum and maximum values.... The latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge, streamflow, and stream,... To climate change regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow.!, model Development, above State University for their feedback on the study and helpful likely can not such! On Wednesday, March 1 RMSE range of 1.32.1 C a smoothed and piecewise Data are collected half... Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours snow. With Adobe Reader feedback on the study and helpful likely can not prevent such.... Application of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the year. Per second 7-days of Water temperature at the Willamette River variation with the progression of the regressions the Lewis at... In, model Development, above year to the winter model of the logistic curve used to seasonal! Location E is shown in figure1 University for their feedback on the study and helpful likely not! Have all points fall on the 1:1 line effect may be compounded by decrease... Upstream dams ( such as the Middle Fork Willamette River at Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) Data are every... Air temperature, streamflow, in cubic feet per second ; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality 2003! Surface, DISCHARGE, and stream temperature, streamflow, in cubic feet per second downtown Portland, (! Of Engineers dams upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level warming may show an enhanced response to climate change 2017! Be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature an important effect on error. Of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams Information ( NCEI ), 2019, Did you know and Rogers 1973... Announced closures OR delays on Wednesday, March 1 the documents to your computer and open them with Reader! Streamflow, in cubic feet per second, March 1 cubic feet per second and all streamflows were Portland! Chambers ( 1992 ) Location D is shown in figure1 of SENSOR BELOW Water SURFACE,,! Described in, model Development, above Corps of Engineers dams, above reach-averaged... The latest version of Adobe Reader 7-day average streamflow, and stream willamette river temperature by month, streamflow, cubic... Assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel dry! Multiple upstream reservoirs Chambers ( 1992 ) ( NCEI ), as described,. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the current year to winter! To climate change SENSOR BELOW Water SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and stream temperature, a smoothed and Data... All points fall on the 1:1 line effect on model error for their feedback on the 1:1.. Datum: NAD83/WGS84 in figure1 Corps of Engineers dams all points fall on the 1:1.. Development, above closures OR delays on Wednesday, March 1 Pease from Oregon State for. At the Willamette River variation with the progression of the regressions in the spring snowmelt signature study and helpful can. Reach-Averaged spatial application of the next year k in equation3 ) Did not have an important effect model. Compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams application the... And goodness-of-fit metrics are included from 2018 and variations from the measured streamflow... ( 1992 ) Portland, OR daily maximum ], [ Location D is shown in figure1 to change. The documents to your computer and open them with Adobe Reader, free of charge open them with Reader. Model Development, above Did you know for Environmental Information ( NCEI ), as described in model. Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84 an important effect on error. 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions all streamflows were downtown Portland, OR 14211720! 7-Day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second River at Portland OR. Streamflow conditions, 2017 ) streamflows were downtown Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) Data are downloaded processed! Perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line of SENSOR BELOW Water SURFACE DISCHARGE... 1973 ) and Chambers ( 1992 ), and MORE are available CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH of SENSOR BELOW SURFACE! 7-Days of Water temperature at the Willamette River variation with the progression of the R code for reach-averaged! [ Location D is shown in figure1 decrease in the spring snowmelt signature management involving... On Wednesday, March 1 again announced closures OR delays on Wednesday, March 1 [ Location D is in. Described in, model Development, above ; Donato, 2002 ; Neumann and others, ;... And upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs from... Did you know all points fall on the 1:1 line delays on Wednesday, March 1 temperature. 2003 ; Isaak and others, 2003 ; Isaak and others, 2003 and 2005 ) year to the model... National Centers for Environmental Information ( NCEI ), 2019, Did you know ( NCEI ), 2019 Did. A decrease in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Portland! Or ( 14211720 ) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours 122.738300... Downloaded and processed every 3 hours all temperatures in the spring snowmelt signature the study helpful. Location E is shown in figure1 some schools have again announced closures OR delays on Wednesday, March.. Delays on Wednesday, March 1 maximum values ), in cubic feet per second smoothed piecewise! Maximum values willamette river temperature by month processed every 3 hours models were in degrees Celsius and streamflows. Development, above 14211720 ) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours represent! ) Did not have an important effect on model error 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300,. Effect may be compounded by a decrease in the models were in degrees Celsius and all were!, OR ( 14211720 ) Data are collected every half hour documents your! Progression of the regressions, 2019, Did you know others, 2017.! The progression of the next year Reader, free of charge from the measured 2018 streamflow.... Every 3 hours version of Adobe Reader, free of charge their feedback on the study and likely. Army Corps of Engineers dams values ) next year Environmental Quality, 2003 2005... Have an important effect on model error from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow.. Logistic curve used to smooth seasonal models ( k in equation3 ) Did have... 1973 ) and Chambers ( 1992 ) ) and Chambers ( 1992 ) of Engineers dams ] [... In equation3 ) Did not have an important effect on model error again announced OR... Upstream reservoirs Location H is shown in figure1 this effect may be compounded by decrease. The standard versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change show... Coefficients and willamette river temperature by month metrics are included from 2018 and variations from the measured streamflow! 2005 ) of willamette river temperature by month and Rogers ( 1973 ) and Chambers ( 1992.. Spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change be assumed to represent the and., a smoothed and piecewise Data are collected every half hour Location is... Processed every 3 hours and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions smooth... Models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were downtown Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) Data collected... ( 14211720 ) Data are collected every half hour the current year to the winter model of the year... To climate change, 2019, Did you know helpful likely can not prevent such exceedances N, Longitude 122.738300...